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2009 world economic growth rate will decrease significantly, it is estimated that global economic growth will be around 2.5% in
2008 to 1-2%. The global financial turmoil triggered by U.S. subprime mortgage crisis in 2009 will tend to decay; but the time lag
effect, the real economy will be affected, the overall economic downturn will last 2-3 years. World economic growth pattern
changed significantly, the status and role of emerging countries will be further enhanced and enhanced.
Since 2001, World Trade and Foreign Direct Investment has been developing rapidly. But subject to the combined effects of the
growth rate of world economy blown film machine sharply lower and other factors, changes in global trade growth in 2009 will be
substantially reduced, and FDI will be negative growth in international financial markets, the first six months will continue, the
current decline, after six months is expected to enter a stable period or start a gradual recovery.
1,2009 global trade and FDI outlook
Since the 1950s, world trade growth is much higher than world economic growth in developing economies in world trade increased
gradually, the balance of trade pattern changes in favor of developing countries and regions. Since 2004, global FDI has developed
rapidly, but the growth pattern of some new changes, the United States, Asia Pacific and Europe to become the three major
international investment hot spot areas in developing countries to attract foreign investment to the rapid growth of FDI capital
flows are concentrated in industries such as energy, financial the field of global mergers and acquisitions heights again. In
2009, the following factors on the global trade and FDI have a major impact:
World economic growth rate has dropped significantly. By the U.S. financial crisis, world economy film blowing machine growth in
2009 will be substantially lower, world trade will be a drag on; the deterioration of the financial position of the U.S. and
Europe at large enterprises, will be severely restricted the development of FDI.
Resource commodity prices fall and the low ebbs. After September 2008, the world s major resource commodity prices dropped
sharply, which will pull down the world trade growth. This situation may continue until the first half of 2009, three quarters of
the year the world s resources, goods prices may be bottoming out, and thus boost world trade recovery. At the same time, the
resource commodity prices bottom out, will also FDI provide good investment opportunities.
Adjustment of the economic and trade policies. By the financial crisis and economic recession, many countries will import trade to
adopt more stringent restrictions. But most will take the way of non-tariff barriers, such as green barriers, social barriers,
anti-dumping, countervailing A negative impact on the development of world trade. In contrast, the financial crisis and economic
recession will encourage more countries to take an active economic policy to attract more foreign investment.
Exchange rate movements are intensified. The financial crisis caused by the frequent fluctuations in the exchange rate impact will
be the stable development of world trade. Euro, pound sterling against the U.S. dollar, Japanese yen, the sharp depreciation of
the yuan, will restrict the EU s foreign direct investment in the development and foreign investment of U.S. manufacturers.
Similarly, the appreciation of the yuan is hard to change as well as China s foreign exchange reserves accumulation and rapid
development of China s foreign investment, while restricting FDI inflows.
Active again in the international financial market speculation. The United States, the European Union and the majority of the
national real estate downturn and the stock market downturn will continue for some time, so as to restrain financial market
speculation. U.S. real estate market may rebound by the end of 2009, with economic forecasting function of the stock market may be
an earlier recovery, this will be the world s capital to "buy the dips". In the second half of 2009, the international financial
markets, speculative investment boom will once again rise, and restricting the transfer of capital to the Industrial FDI.
In summary, the growth rate of world trade fell from 6.3% in 2007 to about 4.5 percent in 2008, will be further reduced to 2-2.5%
in 2009. The 2009 growth rate of international trade, developed countries will fall to -0.1%, developing countries will be reduced
to 5-5.5%, emerging markets will also be reduced to about 7%. Global of FDI in the second half of 2008, there have been a sharp
decline in 2009 may be reduced to $ 1.2 trillion, FDI flows will face more risk.
2,2009 International Financial Market Outlook
By the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis, drastic changes in the international financial market situation in 2008: the volatility of
the foreign exchange market, interbank interest rate periodic ups and downs, the difference between the expansion of medium-and
long-term bond yields fell sharply, the global stock of collective international price of gold fell after rising, the
International commodity futures prices first rose and then dropped; the year the basic trend can be broadly divided into two
stages: the crash phase of the boom stage of the beginning of July, and since July. In 2009, the following factors will be the
international financial markets have an important impact:
The real exchange rate of the dollar will remain the appreciation trend. In the context of the global financial crisis, world
demand fell, prices of resource products, will highlight the characteristics of the United States as the world s financial safe
haven, so as to promote the appreciation of the dollar. This confirms the dollar smile hypothesis "(Dollar Smile Humaniy
Hypothesis) that the U.S. economy if a hard landing, the dollar will rise; U.S. economic growth faster than other regions, the
dollar will also appreciation; the U.S. economy if the" soft landing ", the U.S. dollar will be devalued. Expected in 2009, the
U.S. dollar real exchange rate will remain the appreciation trend and approaching even more than the 2000 baseline levels.
Global stock markets may be wandering in the "bear market". As governments have issued a positive bailout policies, the expected
2009 global stock market phenomenon of collective diving will no longer reproduce. But subject to the risk appetite to reduce the
impact of the liquidity crunch, lack of market confidence, the larger the probability of the stock market low levels.
International market price of gold higher. Affected by the stronger dollar and the liquidity crunch, the 2009 gold as a safe-haven
currency "role will be further apparent, may return to $ 1,000 an ounce for gold.
After the stabilization of international commodity futures prices will decline. The next few months, oil and other commodity
futures prices continue to decline, the possibility is still large. But by the end of 2009, the reduced supply will gradually
emerging, the futures price will be the platform of the oil may be entering a slow rise of converting, but before the end of 2009
exceeded $ 70 / barrel.
In short, in 2009, the global real economy downturn, the demand for commodities is bleak, the shortage of liquidity, financial
market investment and speculation is suppressed, which will directly suppress the global financial and commodity prices. Expected
that the first six months of 2009 the international financial markets will continue, the current downturn, and then six months is
expected to enter a stable period or start a gradual recovery.